This concept enables risk-controlled stock picks
The Gorilla wholeheartedly believes in
the expression, "Give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day. Teach
a man how to fish and he'll eat for a lifetime." What the Gorilla
believes even more is, "Give a man a stock tip and he may make a
quick profit. Teach a man how to invest and he may profit for a lifetime!"
GorillaTrades could simply list those new stocks that appear on the radar
screen each evening and subscribers would have straightforward results.
However, as longtime subscribers know very well, the Gorilla likes to
educate his subscribers along the way, letting them customize GorillaPicks
to their own liking.
While GorillaTrades follows "the rules of the jungle" exactly for recording purposes, regarding when to purchase and sell, this is comparable to playing poker with an open hand. Subscribers have the advantage of being able to vary their trading behavior, which the Gorilla advises. Subscribers have the option to trade GorillaPicks "by the book," or to choose to follow their own set of rules, using the GorillaPicks as a guide. Here is one excellent example:
When it comes to recording results of each GorillaPick, the purchase
of EVERY GorillaPick that triggers (by virtue of the fact that it trades
higher than its listed "buy" price) within five sessions after
first being listed is recorded. GorillaTrades doesn't have the luxury
of recording only those GorillaPicks that experience a Confirmation Day.
Every once in a while, you may find yourself buying a GorillaPick after it triggers, only to have it
drop immediately. Why? Because so many subscribers do not heed to the
Gorilla's advice about being patient. Many quickly jump the gun, by entering
their "limitless" buy orders before the market opens. (The only
acceptable excuse for this behavior is if you have no other choice because
you do not have access to the market after it opens.) This "herd"
behavior often gives the immediate illusion of a Confirmation Day. However,
a quick failed gap on the open does NOT signal confirmation.
The Gorilla understands and respects the marketplace. He also knows that
no system can ALWAYS outperform the overall market without adjustments
and guidance. "Trigger" prices are accounted for within the
portfolio to alert subscribers that a particular GorillaPick could produce
above average market returns. Ultimately, the Gorilla is trying to educate
his subscribers to avoid false "triggers," which over time could
be costly to performance! Why isn't the Gorilla being totally precise?
The answer is simple: He is trying to give as much information as possible,
without causing "herd behavior" among subscribers, as such behavior
(like purchasing every new GorillaPick immediately at the open, every
time) ultimately hurts the overall performance of ALL GorillaTrades subscribers.
The Gorilla believes that during strong periods in the market, you can
enter orders without waiting for confirmation because a very large percentage
of GorillaPicks do go on to have a Confirmation Day. However, during weak
periods, in which an unusually low percentage of GorillaPicks confirm;
waiting for a Confirmation Day is paramount. It could very well make as
much as a 10%-15% difference in your overall return! Most of the GorillaPicks
that stop out with larger-than-normal losses are usually those that never
experienced a Confirmation Day. Waiting for confirmation eliminates most
quick losses. The Gorilla advises that unless the overall stock market
is displaying great strength, you should try to wait for a Confirmation
Day before purchasing any GorillaPick (or any stock for that matter).
So, with no further ado, please let the Gorilla introduce the concept of the Confirmation Day to those not familiar with it, and a refresher course for those that are familiar with it.
Confirmation Day: n. An event that occurs as a result above average daily
volume that fortifies a stock's desired direction. ex. Any point in time
that a stock trades at or through a "trigger price," with above
average volume, and has been authorized for purchase under GorillaTrades
rules. A strong trigger day can also be a "Confirmation Day."
A "Confirmation Day" can occur for the triggered stock at any
point in time after the initial trigger price has been surpassed. In addition
, a GorillaPick must close HIGHER than its trigger price (and higher for
the day) and a GorillaShort must close LOWER than its trigger price on
the day it is to be considered "confirmed."
What exactly constitutes a Confirmation Day?
To initially confirm, a triggered GorillaPick must do ALL of the following
on the SAME day:
1) A GorillaPick must CLOSE higher than its previous close AND higher
than where it opened.
2) A GorillaPick must CLOSE higher than its trigger price.
3) A GorillaPick must meet or exceed its specific volume level area.
The explanation will begin with a few questions and answers to this very
important concept and them move on to visual examples:
1) Is the Confirmation Day similar to IBD's pivot point and breakout theory?
IBD theories are completely separate, but have some excellent
concepts to help you profit with GorillaPicks. The IBD Breakout Theory is
basic rationale to protect you from purchasing at a level which is too far
beyond a stock's initial breakout point. While GorillaPicks are not necessarily
breakouts, utilizing pivot point theories will guide investors through any
market environment.
2) How does the Confirmation Day theory take volume in to account?
A Trigger Day (the day a new potential GorillaPick trades
higher than the "buy" price) or a "Confirmation Day,"
in any type of market, usually displays significant volume (greater than
the average daily volume). A "Volume Confirmation Area" is provided
with every new potential GorillaPick and GorillaShort,
3) Should we observe a trigger point, then wait until the next day to see if the stock trades higher, before purchasing it?
A strong "Trigger Day" can also be the a "Confirmation Day." The Gorilla is trying to protect his subscribers from days where a trade is entered by just a "print" trigger price, with no accompanying volume confirmation. A GorillaPick that does this has a greater chance of underperforming.
4) Is a Confirmation Day a day in which a GorillaPick "closes" higher than the "trigger price"?
Once a trigger price has been achieved, the GorillaPick should be observed for potential strength that is greater than the overall market. If a "trigger price" is activated with volume greater than the daily average (the Gorilla uses a stock's 21-day moving average volume), this may also constitute a "Confirmation Day. "
It is now important to proceed to: Confirmation Day Examples to properly
understand this concept visually. |